SECOND ROUND OF ELECTIONS
Moving toward the second round, attention shifted to the PNL voters where Geoana quickly gained the upper hand. Shortly after the first round returns were in, PNL’s Antonescu announced his support for Geoana, on the condition that PSD accept Johannis as the future prime minister. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania also announced their support for Johannis and their strong preference for the PNL. President Basescu, having failed in his attempt to strike a separate deal on the composition of the future government, claimed that these so-called deals would endure only for the campaign period and that PSD would not allow Johannis to remain in the position for long.
By the end of the week following the first round, a video clip emerged that allegedly showed Basescu slapping a child during his 2004 presidential campaign. The clip received prominent coverage for more than two days, particularly on several television stations owned by opponents of the current President. Supporters of Mr. Basescu argued that the video had been tampered with, while his opponents played up the allegations of his violent character. Basescu further claimed that the media had an expert source who had demonstrated that the video had been altered, but that the media had chosen to disregard this side of the story. Facts aside, the endless discussion of the video clip eliminated nearly all serious debate between the two candidates between the two rounds of elections. In addition, Geoana refused the invitations of Basescu to participate in several debates, accepting only one invitation to debate on Thursday, December 3, just three days before the second round of elections.
Between the two rounds, momentum significantly shifted to the anti-Basescu campaign, with some polls showing the incumbent trailing Geoana by eight points. But several events in the final days of the campaign conspired to swing momentum rapidly in Basescu’s favor. Socialist candidate Geoana chose National Day, December 1, and the Transylvanian city of Timisoara as the site for the signing of a pact between Geoana, Antonescu, Johannis and Timisoara Mayor Gheorghe Ciuhandu, in which the latter endorsed Geoana. The choice of National Day and Timisoara, an important city in the revolution in December 1989 as the site of violent repressions, provoked heated anti-communist, anti-Geoana protests that soon spread to other cities in the country, including Brasov and Bucharest. Then the National Institute of Criminology issued an official opinion stating that the video allegedly showing the president slapping a boy had in fact been manipulated. Also, in an open letter published mid-week, Maria Basescu, the president’s wife, rebutted allegations made by Mircea Dinescu, a prominent writer and public figure, that the president had physically abused his spouse.
On December 2, Mr. Geoana held a late-night meeting with a prominent Romanian businessman and media group owner, Sorin Ovidiu Vantu. News of the meeting with Vantu, whom many Romanians associate with the collapse of a major investment fund and embezzlement scandal, soon leaked, and it became a subject in the final Basescu-Geoana televised debate, an issue that did not play well for Geoana. Mr. Basescu alleged that the reason for the meeting between Mr. Geoana and Mr. Vantu was the very recent arrest in Jakarta of Nicolae Popa, Vantu’s right hand in the embezzlement case who possessed incriminating evidence against Vantu.
By mid-afternoon on Election Day, December 6, it was clear that voter turnout would be strong, ultimately reaching 58 percent. Traian Basescu was re-elected president of Romania by a razor-thin margin. According to the Central Elections Bureau of Romania, the official results were:
- Traian Basescu 50.33 %
- Mircea Geoana 49.67 %
The difference was little more than 70,000 votes out of a total of more than 10.6 million ballots cast. According to exit polls, the two candidates were split by narrow margins in every basic demographic group – i.e., among men and women; urban and rural; level of education – with the exception of the youngest and oldest age categories. Voters aged 18 to 30 favored Basescu by 11 points, according to the exit polls, and voters over 60 favored Geoana by 15 points. According to official results, 147,754 Romanians cast a ballot abroad, with Basescu winning 78.86 percent of those votes.
Shortly after official results were announced, PSD declared that it would contest the outcome by presenting evidence of fraud to the Constitutional Court.
“The infernal machine of buying votes undermined the will of the Romanian people,” said Geoana. “We had two days until the Constitutional Court decides whether the victory of Basescu is valid or invalid. We could not let this happen. We won the elections and that is clear.”
At the time of writing, the fate of PSD’s challenge remained uncertain. Should the Court find that fraud occurred and had impact on the overall result, there is a possibility that the second round would be repeated December 27.
ELECTIONS PROCESS
The conduct of the first and second round of voting, according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Election Observation Mission, was generally conducted in “compliance with OSCE commitments and other international standards for democratic elections, the respect for fundamental political freedoms, the competitive campaign environment, and the efficient administration of the election.”
The OSCE also noted that “authorities took steps to remedy some shortcomings noted during the first round of voting and to investigate allegations of irregularities.” Several groups, however, including the OSCE as well as the Pro Democracy Association (which fielded 1,400 domestic election monitors), called attention to details that created potential for fraud.
The main issue of concern was the special polling stations, which were established by a government emergency ordinance earlier this year. The special polling stations were originally established to serve travelers and people who work or study away from the districts in which they are registered, and the emergency ordinance modified the previous practice that allowed those voters to cast a ballot in any voting station, their names being entered on a special voting list. Observers criticized the arrangement, emphasizing the unusually high number of such special polling stations – about 3,300 – throughout the country, and what they said were inadequate procedures in place to prevent multiple voting at these sites. Critics also noted that the locations that would really benefit from special voting stations, such as transport hubs and university districts, were in reality underserviced. Most of the special stations were instead set up in the countryside, which contributed to suspicion that they created greater possibility for election tourism, the organized multiple voting schemes that had been the subject of previous allegations and criticisms.
Analysis of first round results revealed that almost five percent of registered voters cast their ballots in these special polling stations. Out of a total of 472,591 first round votes cast in the special voting stations, Antonescu won 112,834, Basescu won 156,928, and Geoana won 139,855. In the second round, 617,225 votes were cast in special voting stations, Basescu winning 321,700 and Geoana winning 288,954. In a recount of voided ballots ordered on December 11 by the Romanian Constitutional Court, Basescu extended his lead over Geoana. At the same time, as the OSCE report noted, many voters were denied the possibility to cast a ballot due to long lines at some special polling stations in underserviced districts.
Some observers disagreed, arguing that many improvements had been made to the organization of special polling stations to diminish the possibility of fraud. The stations were equipped with surveillance cameras to record the balloting process, the regulation of the voting lists in those stations had been made more stringent, and the political parties were reasonably represented on the local election commissions. In its second-round report, the OSCE noted as a welcome development that the “BEC [Central Electoral Commission] increased the transparency of the process by publishing the results of the first round from all polling stations on its website.”
POST-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT
With all the major parliamentary parties having aligned against President Basescu and PD-L in the second round, the major question confronting the president and interim Prime Minister Emil Boc (PD-L) post-election, assuming the December 6 result stands, is how to form a new government and pass the new national budget that contains major public expenditure cuts as a condition for the new rescue loan from the IMF.
Following the second round results, prospects for a deal on the coalition government began to brighten. The opposition candidate for prime minister, Klaus Johannis, stated that it was no longer a reasonable option for the opposition to push through a government with the force of its parliamentary majority and withdrew his candidacy. Among the liberals, indications emerged that part of PNL, led by former party president Calin Popescu-Tariceanu, may agree to a deal with PD-L to give their parliamentary backing to a new Liberal Democrat government.
Finally, depending on the parliamentary majority that coalesces to back the future cabinet, given the particularly narrow margin of Basescu’s victory, the executive could face challenges to its legitimacy and political strength. In a period of financial crisis and austerity measures, a weak majority may prove to be a serious impediment to the government’s ability to carry out reforms.
IRI IN EUROPE
In Europe, the International Republican Institute (IRI) focuses on helping political parties become more issue-oriented and responsive to voters’ concerns. IRI’s training helps parties create more coherent platforms, better strategic communications, more effective grassroots organizations, and stable party foundations or institutes that can provide necessary training and analytical support. IRI is also active in expanding political participation among women, youth and minorities. By working with governments and civil society to concentrate more on policy, IRI seeks to make the region’s democracies more responsive and sustainable.
Launched in 1999, IRI’s Regional Program for Europe operates in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. The program also serves as a focal point for IRI’s interaction with western European political parties, institutions and democracy promotion foundations.
This update was compiled by Laura Stefan of the Romanian Academic Society and IRI staff.
Institutul de Studii Populare 